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Published on: Apr 20, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context.

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A 1% death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment. Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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20% Health Time | A Smarter Way to Build Workplace Wellbeing

Modern workplaces are increasingly recognising that employee health is not separate from performance—it is foundational to it. Long work hours, constant digital connectivity and rising stress levels have led to burnout, lifestyle diseases and declining engagement across industries. In this context, the concept of 20% Health Time has emerged as a forward-thinking approach to workplace wellness.

20% Health Time allows employees to dedicate a portion of their paid working hours specifically to activities that support physical, mental and preventive health. Rather than treating wellness as an after-hours responsibility, this model integrates health directly into the work culture.

What Is 20% Health Time?

20% Health Time is a structured workplace initiative where employees are encouraged or allowed to spend approximately one-fifth of their working time on health-related activities.

These activities may include:

physical exercise or movement breaks
mental wellness practices
health education sessions
preventive health screenings
stress management and recovery

The core idea is simple: healthier employees perform better and sustain productivity longer.

Why Traditional Wellness Programs Fall Short

Many organisations offer wellness benefits such as gym memberships or annual checkups. While valuable, these programs often fail because:

employees lack time to use them
wellness is seen as optional
participation remains low
benefits are disconnected from daily work

20% Health Time addresses these gaps by embedding wellness into regular work hours.

Why Health Time Matters in Today’s Workplace

Rising Lifestyle Disease Burden

Public health data shows increasing rates of:

diabetes
hypertension
obesity
mental health disorders

These conditions affect working-age adults and directly impact productivity and healthcare costs.

Burnout and Mental Fatigue

Constant pressure and lack of recovery time lead to:

chronic stress
disengagement
absenteeism
high attrition

Health Time creates space for recovery and resilience.

Sedentary Work Culture

Desk-bound work contributes to:

musculoskeletal problems
cardiovascular risk
low energy levels

Dedicated health time encourages movement and prevention.

How 20% Health Time Benefits Employees

Improved Physical Health

Regular movement and preventive care reduce long-term health risks.

Better Mental Wellbeing

Time for mindfulness, rest and stress management improves emotional balance.

Higher Energy and Focus

Healthy routines improve concentration and reduce fatigue.

Empowerment and Autonomy

Employees feel trusted to manage their wellbeing, increasing engagement.

How Employers Benefit from 20% Health Time

Increased Productivity

Healthy employees work more efficiently and make fewer errors.

Reduced Absenteeism

Preventive care lowers sick days and health-related disruptions.

Lower Healthcare Costs

Early detection and healthier habits reduce long-term medical expenses.

Stronger Employer Brand

Wellbeing-focused policies attract and retain top talent.

Sustainable Performance

Health Time supports long-term performance rather than short-term output.

Activities That Fit into 20% Health Time

Organisations can tailor activities based on workforce needs:

guided fitness or yoga sessions
walking or movement breaks
mental health workshops
preventive health checkups
nutrition education
stress and sleep management programs

Flexibility ensures inclusivity across roles and work models.

Evidence Supporting Health Time Initiatives

Workplace health research consistently shows that:

preventive health improves productivity
employee wellbeing programs reduce burnout
time invested in health yields measurable returns

According to WHO and workplace wellness studies, integrated health initiatives deliver better outcomes than standalone benefits.

Addressing Common Concerns

“Will this reduce working hours?”

No. Health Time improves efficiency, offsetting time spent through better performance.

“Is it suitable for high-pressure roles?”

Yes. High-stress roles benefit the most from structured recovery time.

“How do we measure impact?”

Metrics may include:

reduced absenteeism
improved engagement scores
lower healthcare claims
better retention

Implementing 20% Health Time Effectively

Successful implementation requires:

leadership support
clear guidelines
flexible scheduling
inclusive activity options
regular feedback

Health Time works best when seen as a cultural shift, not a perk.

Long-Term Impact on Organisational Health

Over time, organisations adopting Health Time observe:

healthier workforce
improved morale
reduced burnout
stronger team cohesion
sustainable growth

These benefits compound year after year.

Conclusion

20% Health Time represents a progressive shift in how organisations view employee wellbeing. By dedicating work time to health, companies acknowledge that productivity and wellbeing are deeply connected. Rather than reacting to burnout and illness, Health Time promotes prevention, balance and resilience. In a future where talent, performance and sustainability matter more than ever, integrating health into the workday is not a luxury—it is a strategic necessity.

References

World Health Organization (WHO) – Workplace Health Promotion Guidelines
Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – Lifestyle Disease and Work Health Reports
NITI Aayog – Preventive Healthcare and Workforce Wellbeing Strateg
Lancet – Workplace Wellness and Productivity Studies
Harvard Business Review – Employee Wellbeing and Performance Research
Statista – Corporate Wellness Trends and ROI Data

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