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Published on: Apr 20, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Is Herd Immunity A Valid Strategy For COVID 19?

Yesterday we explained you what Herd Immunity means and how it works, today we will take the discussion further to determine whether it is effective and can be recommended in the current context.

COVID-19 currently does not have a cure or a vaccine. Lockdown is the only strategy that appears to be working. Could implementing policies that encourages herd immunity be used to accelerate immunity in the population without the need for a vaccine?

INFECTIVITY

For the strategy to work we need to know a few things about the virus. How infective is it? In one of our earliest blogs we discussed infectivity at length and determined that the R0 (infectivity) may be between 2 and 3. This means each person with the virus can infect around 2-3 people at a time. Whilst this is not as high as Mumps (10-12) it is much higher than the common flu. The higher the R0 the more people that need to be immunised before herd immunity is achieved. For COVID it is estimated that 70% of the population need to be infected.

This is based off our current testing. Due to shortages in testing kits, only testing those that have a high likelihood of being infected and poorly organised testing infrastructure in some countries, we are likely underestimating. The number of people infected may be much higher as we are missing those that are asymptomatic but still have the disease and are still passing the disease on.

MORTALITY

Secondly, we need to know the mortality from COVID-19. Early estimates of mortality were as high as 10%, as we had little data on how many people were truly infected, but as the number of infected cases rose, and testing amongst the infected and symptomatic population rose, a more accurate mortality has been found to be around 1%. There is a risk we may still be underestimating the true mortality, as some cities have noted a spike in cardiac deaths, and some evidence supports possible cardiac damage due to COVID. But from the data we have, we know its mortality is lower than MERS (34%) and SARS (10%) but more than influenza (0.1%).

estimates of the COVID-19 case fatality rate

Whilst we have some data on who is likely to suffer from severe COVID symptoms (elderly, immunocompromised, people with heart or lung problems) we still cannot accurately determine who will get severe COVID in the “low risk” population. Simply because someone is young and healthy does not mean they will not die from COVID.

LENGTH OF IMMUNITY

Third we need to know how long this immunity will last. Similar coronaviruses responsible for the common cold usually create immunity that lasts for a few months, which is why we often get the cold repeatedly. A virus is also very prone to mutations that can change the structure and functions of its proteins, proteins responsible for tagging, latching on to and entering cells. If the structure of these proteins changes enough, then our antibodies will not be able to bind on, and new types of antibodies will have to be made with a slightly different structure. This effectively means our bodies have to start from step 1 again to create immunity, and we have to make new vaccines. This mutation rate is why we have to make new vaccines every season for the flu.

LONG TERM COMPLICATIONS

Finally, we need to know if there are any long-term implications from a viral infection. Again, this is something we do not know yet, as the virus has only been around for a few months. There may be implications for the cardiovascular system, long term breathing problems or more. And even if the complication rate appears relatively low (say, 1%), if millions of people are allowed to get infected, by definitions thousands or tens of thousands of people will have these complications, complications that can lead to issues later in life or an early death.

CONCLUSION

So, is herd immunity a viable strategy for COVID? Without a safe vaccine the general consensus appears to be no.

We don’t know how infective the virus really is or how many people it has infected

A 1% death rate is still very high. This means for every 100 people to be infected; one will die. This would mean hundreds of thousands of people dead in a country with a population over 10 million. It is unacceptably high.

If the death rate is 1%, then hospitalisation rate is likely higher. Almost all countries do not have capacity to have 1% of the population in hospital. Overwhelming the healthcare system will lead to poorer care, and worse care for those who do not have COVID. Leading to more people coming to serious harm or dying as a result of poor healthcare, not because of COVID.

We don’t know the long-term effects of COVID. By purposefully infecting people instead of waiting for a vaccine we may be causing unnecessary damage to a person’s health that only becomes apparent later in life. But this is speculation as we do not currently know if COVID has long term effects,

We don’t know if all of the risks above will amount to anything. The immunity may not last long enough, leading to another spike in infections and mortality.

Mass vaccination appears to be the safest strategy. And though human clinical trials have started on a number of vaccines, we are still months away from deployment. Until then we should not come out of lockdown prematurely, not until we have received an unbiased assessment from public health officials that states it is safe.

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Digital Health in India: Transforming Care with Technology – SecondMedic

In India today, healthcare is not just happening inside hospitals - it’s happening on screens, through apps, and in homes. The wave of digital health is reshaping how millions of Indians access, engage with and manage their health. And at the forefront of this transformation is SecondMedic - bringing tech-enabled, human-centred care to you.

Why Digital Health Matters in India

India faces a unique healthcare challenge: a large and diverse population, uneven distribution of healthcare services, rising burden of chronic disease, and cost pressure. According to recent reports, the digital health market in India was valued at approx USD 8.79 billion in 2024, and is expected to reach about USD 47.81 billion by 2033, at a CAGR of ~17.7%. custommarketinsights.com+1 Another report estimates USD 16.11 billion market size in 2024, with a projected USD 76.01 billion by 2033 (CAGR ~18.8%). Imarc Group

These numbers indicate the depth of opportunity - but also the urgency of care innovation.

Key Drivers of the Digital Health Revolution

Internet & Smartphone Penetration: With more than a billion internet users and increasing mobile data access, more Indians can access digital health tools than ever before.
Government Initiatives: Programmes such as the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission (ABDM) are creating frameworks for unified health records and digital infrastructure. Grand View Research+1
Telemedicine Acceptance: The pandemic accelerated adoption - video consultations, e-prescriptions and remote care are now mainstream. GlobeNewswire+1
Rise of Health Tech Start-ups & Capital: India has attracted billions in venture funding for digital health innovation. Galen Growth
Chronic Disease Burden & Prevention Needs: With rising lifestyle diseases, digital tools for monitoring, prevention, and early intervention are vital.

How SecondMedic Delivers Digital Health

At SecondMedic, our vision of digital health encompasses more than technology - it’s about connecting people, data and care seamlessly. Here’s how:

Online Doctor Consultations: Talk to licensed doctors from home, get e-prescriptions, and follow up digitally.
Diagnostics at Home + Digital Reports: Book home sample collection, receive your reports online, and consult doctors based on results.
Digital Health Records: Your health history, test results, and prescriptions stored securely and accessible anytime.
Remote Monitoring & Chronic Care: Track BP, sugar, vitals via wearables or apps; get alerts and virtual support.
Preventive & Wellness Plans: Leverage digital assessments, personalised advice and follow-ups to stay ahead of illness.

Benefits for You & Your Family

More Accessible Care: Whether you’re in a metro or smaller town, digital health brings the doctor closer.
Time & Cost Savings: No long hospital visits; quicker decisions, less travel.
Continuity & Convenience: Care doesn’t stop at discharge - your health journey is tracked and managed digitally.
Empowered Patients: With health data and tools at your fingertips, you become an active participant in your healthcare.

Challenges & What Must Improve

While digital health offers promise, it’s not without hurdles:

Infrastructure Gaps: Rural regions may still face connectivity, device or digital literacy issues.
Data Privacy & Security: Ensuring health data is safely stored and used responsibly is essential.
Standardisation: Interoperability of health records, standard formats and integration across platforms remain a work in progress. arXiv+1
User Trust & Adoption: Some users remain sceptical of digital tools; building trust through reliable platforms is key.

Looking Ahead: The Future of Digital Health in India

The next phase of digital health will be characterised by:

AI & Predictive Analytics: Using big data to forecast disease risk, tailor treatment and improve outcomes.
Wearables & IoT: More connected devices tracking health in real time.
Integrated Ecosystems: Seamless flow between teleconsultation, diagnostics, pharmacy, monitoring and follow-up.
Inclusive Growth: Bringing digital health to underserved populations, remote areas and smaller towns.
Policy & Regulatory Maturation: Stronger frameworks, data governance and patient-centric policies.

Conclusion

Digital health in India is more than a technology trend - it’s the foundation of future-ready healthcare. For patients, it means access, convenience, and continuous care. For the healthcare system, it means efficiency, scalability and innovation.

At SecondMedic, we are committed to integrating technology with compassion - making sure that your health is managed smarter, digitally and with a human touch.

Start your digital health journey today at www.secondmedic.com.

Real Data & References

India digital health market valued at USD 8.79 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 47.81 billion by 2033. custommarketinsights.com+1
India digital health market valued at USD 14.50 billion in 2024, projected to reach USD 106.97 billion by 2033 (CAGR ~25.12%). Grand View Research
India’s digital healthcare sector estimated to grow from USD 2.7 billion in 2022 to USD 37 billion by 2030. B Capital
India’s digital health records market size at USD 1.1 billion in 2024, projected at USD 1.5 billion by 2033. Imarc Group

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