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Published on: Apr 04, 2020
3 minute read
By: Dr Rajan Choudhary

Declaring A Pandemic — What Does This Mean ?

Its finally happened. Three months after the first case was reported in Wuhan, China, and after a 13 fold increase in cases in just two weeks, the World Health Organisation has designated COVID-19 a pandemic. This disease has resulted in over 121,500 confirmed cases across 114 nations, and 4,300 deaths, over 3,000 of them in China alone.

The WHO has shown alarm at some countries that have shown “alarming levels of inaction” and hope the new designation of pandemic will shock these nations into action. “This is not just a public health crisis, it is a crisis that will touch every sector,” said Dr. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO director-general, at a media briefing. “So every sector and every individual must be involved in the fights.”

Despite this new update, it is not too late for nations to act, and countries can still impact the course of the outbreak by detecting, testing, treating and isolating patient, with further education to the public and contact tracing of cases.

WHAT IS A PANDEMIC

An epidemic is an increase in the spread of a disease within a community, and can be relatively common. Sometimes a single disease may spread rapidly in a small, unprepared community creating an epidemic. This is happening more often with the prevalence of the anti-vaxx movement, as immunity falters against preventable diseases like measles.

A pandemic on the other hand is the global outbreak of a serious new illness that is “sustainably transmitted throughout the world”. It is not a descriptor that is used lightly, as declaring a pandemic could “cause unreasonable fear, or unjustified acceptance that the fight is over,” if used incorrectly. There has been much discussion whether the declaration of N1N1 “swine flu” as a pandemic caused unnecessary panic, overwhelmed emergency services or caused excessive expenditure on antiviral medication.

Though they were concerned by the spread of the disease and came close by labelling it a “pandemic potential”, the WHO were reluctant to declare it one. Unfortunately, after 2 months of assessing the outbreak, members of the WHO were concerned “both by the alarming levels of spread and severity, and by the alarming levels of inaction.” There is no threshold, number of deaths, number of countries affected.

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN FOR THE COUNTRIES?

According to the World Bank, the annual global cost of a severe pandemic is around $570 billion, or 0.7% of the entire world’s income. This estimation is realised as more people stay at home and more authoritative measures are enforced by governments. At this time, Italy has not put in place nationwide quarantine with further closure of almost all shops and services bar food shops and chemists.

The UK is expected to move from the “containment” phase of the outbreak, aimed at halting the spread of the disease”, to “delay”. This instead accepts the disease cannot be contained, and instead looks to slow its progression. Measures such as “social distancing”, isolation of those showing minor viral symptoms and cancellation of social events. To prepare for the UK epidemic a £30bn package has been prepared to boost the economy during the COVID outbreak.

India has suspended all tourist visas and e-visas until April 15ht as a pandemic is declared. All incoming travellers including Indian nationals will be quarantined for a minimum of 14 days if they have visited China, Italy, Iran, Korea, France, Spain and Germany after 15ht February. Advice has also been given to avoid all non-essential travel abroad.

South Korea has ramped up testing, performing around 4,000 tests per million people between 3rd January and 11th March. In comparison to 1,000 per million in Italy, 400 per million in the UK and only 28 in the UK. This has been due to differences in government responses, the severity of outbreaks in each country and the nature of the healthcare system in each country.

The steady decrease in new coronavirus cases in South Korea has been attributed to this mass testing, improved public communications and the use of new technology to aid diagnosis and management. Interestingly it has been achieved without the drastic quarantine procedures in place in China and Italy.

WHAT SHOULD I DO

Washing your hands has been emphasised by almost all public health agencies and governments. And you should continue to follow this advice. Soap and water is one of the most effective ways to destroy the virus on your hands, and helps prevent its spread.

It is also important to avoid panic, and to not hoard soap, food and toilet roll. Do not trust forwards on WhatsApp or treatment advice suggested, as these can be ineffective or even dangerous. Recently 27 people died from alcohol poisoning after a myth was spread stating strong alcohol could cure coronavirus.

Similarly be wary of false cures being sold online or by un reputable stores. Currently there is no cure for COVID, and supportive treatment is required for those who fall extremely ill.

If you have symptoms of COVID-19, you should self-isolate and notify your local health authorities. Symptoms include fever, cough, sneezing, general lethargy and joint pain, symptoms similar to the flu.

If you have confirmed COVID and have been asked to quarantine yourself, PLEASE STAY INDOORS. There have been instances of infected people continuing to partake in everyday activities, resulting in the spread of the infection, sometimes to vulnerable children and the elderly.

Dr Rajan Choudhary, Product Head, Second Medic Inc, UK

www.secondmedic.com

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Healthcare Predictive Analytics India: The Future of Data-Driven Preventive Health

Indian healthcare is experiencing a major transformation as data analytics and artificial intelligence become integral to medical decision-making. Healthcare predictive analytics uses advanced algorithms to analyze medical data, lifestyle patterns, and population health trends to identify risks long before symptoms appear. This shift toward prediction rather than reaction is helping India build a stronger, more preventive healthcare ecosystem.

Predictive analytics supports early diagnosis, reduces medical complications, improves treatment outcomes, and lowers healthcare costs. As India faces rising chronic diseases, urban lifestyle pressures, and limited specialist availability, predictive healthcare has become essential for timely and accurate care. SecondMedic integrates predictive analytics into its digital health platform, enabling individuals and clinicians to make proactive health decisions.

Why Predictive Analytics Matters in India’s Healthcare Landscape

India has one of the highest global burdens of chronic diseases. According to ICMR, non-communicable diseases account for over 60 percent of total deaths in the country. Many of these illnesses develop silently, making early detection difficult without advanced tools.

Predictive analytics helps change this by identifying patterns and generating early risk signals. Key factors driving its adoption include:

Growth of digital medical records
Widespread use of wearables and health trackers
Increased testing and diagnostic data availability
Government-supported digital health initiatives
Higher patient expectations for personalized care

With these enablers in place, predictive analytics is moving from research to everyday clinical use.

How Predictive Analytics Works in Healthcare

Predictive analytics draws from a wide range of data sources to generate meaningful insights. These insights help forecast risks, detect abnormalities, and recommend preventive actions.

Data sources used include:

Electronic medical records
Lab test results
Vital signs and biometric data
Wearable device data
Lifestyle and nutrition patterns
Family and genetic factors
Population health statistics

AI algorithms analyze this data to identify trends that may indicate early risk.

Early Disease Detection Through Predictive Models

One of the most valuable applications of predictive analytics is early detection. Many chronic diseases show minor biological changes long before symptoms appear. Predictive models can analyze these subtle indicators and alert patients and doctors early.

Predictive analytics can help detect:

Diabetes risk and prediabetes
Hypertension and cardiovascular risk
Thyroid dysfunction
Chronic kidney disease
Mental health patterns
Sleep disorders
Respiratory illness likelihood

SecondMedic’s predictive tools evaluate these risk markers and create personalized alerts.

Predictive Analytics for Chronic Disease Management

Chronic conditions require ongoing care, monitoring, and timely intervention. Predictive analytics enhances chronic disease management by identifying when a condition may worsen or require immediate attention.

Predictive tools help with:

Monitoring health trends continuously
Detecting early warning signs
Reducing emergency hospitalizations
Recommending medication adjustments
Forecasting disease progression
Tracking lifestyle impact

SecondMedic integrates these insights with remote monitoring devices to support long-term chronic care.

Personalized Preventive Care Using Predictive Models

Preventive care becomes more precise with predictive analytics. Instead of generalized recommendations, individuals receive personalized plans based on their specific risks and lifestyle patterns.

Predictive analytics supports personalized care by:

Creating customized screening schedules
Suggesting targeted lifestyle improvements
Recommending personalized diet and exercise routines
Providing sleep and stress insights
Helping individuals avoid long-term complications

SecondMedic uses these data-backed insights to deliver tailored preventive plans for each user.

AI-Driven Risk Scoring and Health Forecasting

AI risk scoring is a core part of predictive healthcare. These scores reflect a person’s likelihood of developing certain conditions within a specific timeframe. They help users understand their health trajectory and take necessary steps early.

Risk scores are generated using:

Blood tests
Vitals
Daily activity patterns
Family health history
Behavioral trends
Environmental factors

SecondMedic offers AI-based risk scores that help individuals track their health over time and make informed decisions.

Predictive Analytics for Mental Health and Lifestyle Patterns

Predictive analytics is increasingly used to understand mental health indicators such as stress, burnout, depression risk, or sleep disturbances. Wearables and digital behavior analysis provide a large amount of data for predicting emotional wellbeing.

Predictive models can analyze:

Sleep patterns
Heart rate variability
Stress markers
Digital behavior patterns
Lifestyle routines

SecondMedic integrates these insights into its wellness programs to support mental and emotional wellbeing.

Improving Population Health with Predictive Analytics

Predictive analytics is not limited to individual care. It also plays a critical role in public health planning. By identifying disease clusters, risk trends, and healthcare needs, predictive models help governments and hospitals prepare better.

Population-level benefits include:

Identifying outbreaks early
Predicting disease burden
Allocating healthcare resources effectively
Planning community health programs
Improving screening recommendations

SecondMedic works toward making population health analytics accessible to organizations and communities.

Predictive Analytics and the Future of Indian Healthcare

In the coming years, predictive analytics will be integrated into most healthcare systems and digital platforms. India is moving toward a future where early risk detection becomes standard practice.

Future trends include:

AI-driven clinical decision support
Predictive genomics
Precision nutrition and metabolism modeling
Hospital predictive workflow systems
Predictive triaging for emergency care
Integration with Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission
Nationwide predictive health screening programs

SecondMedic aims to remain at the forefront of this transformation by developing advanced predictive tools for both clinical and personal use.

Conclusion

Healthcare predictive analytics in India is reshaping how diseases are detected, managed, and prevented. By leveraging AI, big data, and continuous monitoring, predictive healthcare empowers individuals to act early and avoid complications. SecondMedic integrates these advanced tools into a unified digital health ecosystem, offering personalized risk scoring, early alerts, and precise preventive care.

To explore predictive health tools and preventive care programs, visit www.secondmedic.com

References

NITI Aayog – Artificial Intelligence in Healthcare India
ICMR – Chronic Disease Burden Report 2024
IMARC – Healthcare Analytics Market India 2025
WHO – Predictive Health Analytics Standards
FICCI – AI and Healthcare Innovation India Report

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