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Published on: Jul 02, 2021
2 minute read
By: Dr Rakesh Rai

Delta Plus Variant Mystery: What Can Cause The Third Covid Wave?

Delta plus variant mystery: What can cause the third Covid wave?

Things in India are looking to normalize and beginning to reopen after a deadly second wave of Covid-19 infections devastated the country in April and May. There is various thought process from experts who are warning that a third wave could strike in the next few months. The majority of Indians are worried about new variants named delta plus, which is related to the Delta, an existing variant of concern first identified in India last year that was responsible for the deadly second wave.

The million-dollar question is how realistic these fears are. The reality is that future waves are not out of question but their severity and spread depend on several factors. In the past few weeks, the number of average daily cases in India has tapered down to less than 40,000 in recent days which was peak over 420,000 in May. The big drop in numbers has mainly because of strict lockdowns by states.

Many social and political events added to the second wave. If the reopening process are not orchestrated in a controlled fashion the next wave could come sooner than expected.

We are in a very decisive phase and our fate will depend on how we behave. Opening the states in a staggered manner is best. Going aggressive with vaccination and continue with COVID protocols will be the winning strategy. A balanced local and central health protocols could do the magic while severe action on defaulters could be used as a deterrent.

We know that the Delta variant had a killer impact during the second wave. The risk of future mutants in densely populated areas is known and preventive actions should be put in place immediately. There is no clear data around Delta plus but things have changed really fast when the proactive approach is not taken in advance. We need to understand that mutants only emerge when active transmission happening. A lot of research is happening around it take preemptive containment measures by understanding probable sequences.

So far data is indicating that the current vaccine is delivering good results in emerging mutants. India had sequenced 30,000 samples until June, but experts believe more needs to be done because the current vaccine is not a guaranteed long-term solution.

There are multiple cases where vaccinated people have got infected. Some call 3rd wave inevitable and some call it will be a smaller wave but the science is indicating that it will all depend on how effective our existing vaccine is against the new variants.

So, in conclusion, one can say that the key is the vaccinated population in controlling the wave and even allowing it to be formed. The acquired immunity and its efficacy will be crucial in determining the damage the third wave can cause. The required daily dose is upwards of 10 million to get all eligible populations covered by 2021.

The wide range of infection-causing natural antibodies and vaccination combined will provide the ammunition India needs badly to shield against future variants. The problem is the data around it is not very accurate. During the height of infections lot of COVID, infections went unreported. A lot of statisticians around it are guessing the acquired immunity percentage to be around 65%. This number should not be the reason we can take it easy.

Acquired immunity is immunity you develop over time from a vaccine or exposure to the infection.

Conclusively it can be said that “Third wave is only possible if the new variant beats the barriers of acquired immunity.”

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common health problems during seasonal change

Seasonal changes bring relief from extreme weather, but they also pose unique challenges to human health. Transitions between summer, monsoon and winter often trigger a rise in illnesses. The body requires time to adapt to changing temperature, humidity and environmental conditions. During this adjustment period, immunity may weaken, making individuals more vulnerable to infections and other health problems.

Understanding common health problems during seasonal change helps individuals take preventive measures and seek timely care.

Why Seasonal Change Affects Health

Seasonal transitions impact the body in several ways:

sudden temperature fluctuations stress the immune system
humidity changes promote pathogen growth
allergens become more prevalent
lifestyle habits shift with weather

These factors collectively increase illness risk.

1. Respiratory Infections

Respiratory infections are among the most common health problems during seasonal change.

Causes

viral and bacterial growth in changing weather
increased indoor crowding
weakened respiratory defences

Symptoms

cough
sore throat
fever
nasal congestion

Children and elderly individuals are particularly vulnerable.

2. Common Cold and Flu

Seasonal transitions often coincide with cold and flu outbreaks.

Why They Increase

viruses survive longer in certain climates
immunity temporarily weakens
exposure increases during travel and gatherings

Symptoms

runny nose
sneezing
body aches
fatigue

3. Allergies

Seasonal allergies become prominent during weather shifts.

Common Triggers

pollen
dust
mould
air pollution

Symptoms

sneezing
itchy eyes
nasal congestion
throat irritation

Allergic symptoms can mimic infections and are often overlooked.

4. Digestive Problems

Digestive issues such as acidity, gas and indigestion are common during seasonal change.

Contributing Factors

altered eating patterns
contaminated food or water
reduced digestion efficiency

Symptoms

bloating
abdominal discomfort
nausea

5. Skin Problems

Changes in humidity and temperature affect skin health.

Common Issues

dryness
fungal infections
rashes

Poor skin barrier function increases infection risk.

6. Viral Fevers

Viral fevers are common during monsoon and post-monsoon periods.

Symptoms

sudden fever
body pain
headache
weakness

Early rest and hydration are essential.

7. Joint and Body Pain

Seasonal change may worsen joint stiffness and body aches, especially in individuals with arthritis.

Causes

cold weather
reduced physical activity
inflammation

Why Immunity Drops During Seasonal Change

Immunity may weaken due to:

temperature stress
vitamin deficiencies
poor sleep
increased stress

According to Indian Council of Medical Research data, immunity-related illnesses increase during transitional seasons.

Who Is Most at Risk?

High-risk groups include:

infants and children
elderly individuals
pregnant women
people with chronic diseases
individuals with low immunity

Extra care is required for these groups.
people with diabetes, heart disease,lung disease, kidney disease

Prevention of Seasonal Health Problems

Maintain Good Hygiene

Frequent handwashing reduces infection spread.

Support Immune Health

Balanced nutrition, hydration and adequate sleep strengthen immunity.

Stay Physically Active

Regular movement supports circulation and immune function.

Eat Fresh and Safe Food

Avoid stale or contaminated food during high-risk seasons.

Stay Vaccinated

Vaccination helps prevent seasonal flu and related complications.

Manage Allergens

Keep living spaces clean and well-ventilated.
mask use in crowded places, safe water, mosquito protection in monsoon.

Early Warning Signs Not to Ignore

Seek medical advice if experiencing:

persistent fever
breathing difficulty
severe weakness
worsening symptoms

Early intervention prevents complications.

Role of Preventive Healthcare

Preventive care focuses on:

early detection
risk reduction
long-term health protection

Seasonal health awareness is a key part of preventive medicine.

Long-Term Impact of Ignoring Seasonal Illness

Repeated seasonal illnesses may lead to:

chronic respiratory problems
weakened immunity
reduced quality of life

Prevention protects long-term health.

Conclusion

Common health problems during seasonal change include respiratory infections, colds, allergies, digestive issues and viral fevers. These conditions arise due to sudden weather changes, weakened immunity and increased exposure to pathogens. By understanding the causes and symptoms and adopting preventive measures such as good hygiene, balanced nutrition, adequate rest and timely medical care, individuals can significantly reduce seasonal illness risk. Seasonal transitions are inevitable, but proactive health practices ensure smoother adaptation and better wellbeing throughout the year.

References

Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) – Seasonal Disease Surveillance Report
National Family Health Survey (NFHS-5) – Immunity and Morbidity Data
World Health Organization (WHO) – Seasonal Illness Prevention Guideline
NITI Aayog – Preventive Healthcare and Climate Health Reports
Lancet – Climate Change and Seasonal Disease Patterns
Statista – Seasonal Illness Trends and Public Health Data

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